The unspoken
issue in reviewing the oil and gas industry, is what is the impact of consumer
demand on the pipeline. Were consumer
requirements for gas and other petroleum products decreasing, the need for
increased production would be moot.
If car
mileage utilization were dropping, if more public transit trips were being
made, if active transportation were becoming the norm, then one would be expect
to see oil production decreasing.
And we as the
consumer are the driver of the this pipeline.
Canadian
net gasoline sales have increased an average of 0.6% annually over the past
five years. While diesel sales dropped
with the recession in 2009, since then have increased by 7%. Stats
Canada detail gasoline and diesel consumption annually at Stats
Can gasoline consumption reports . The US has fared slightly better with
flattened utilization over the past few years and overall reduction of 6% since
2007. US
consumption of gasoline
Most countries will do not have the positive experience of
the US. Japan, UK and other European
countries have marginal improvements as well.
Globally, typical projections of global demand suggest a 2% annual overall
demand in petroleum products driven by growth in Asia and other emerging economies. Check out your country or region at international
petroleum consumption
As long as demand increases, the need for exploration and
tapping existing supplies will continue. Just as importantly, many traditional
supply sources such as US based fields, North Sea and even Canadian non-tar
sand supplies have decreasing productivity requiring shifting to newer sources
such as tar sands.
Despite the marginal improvement in US and other countries,
dramatic reductions in demand would be the only scenario where consumer demand
would decrease sufficiently to warrant limiting industry growth. Sadly, sustained decreasing trends are not likely given best efforts in European centres have plateaued at marginally lower demand.
In the meantime, keep walking, biking, using public
transport, and encourage friends and family to do the same. Aiming words at
producers can only be backed by substantive behavioural change at the end of
the pipeline.
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