It sounds like an awful movie title, but the pandemic H1N1 strain is entering for a second show.
The best
way these days to figure out what is happening with influenza is not to use the
usual updates from PHAC fluwatch CDC
Fluview or WHO
influenza . The best way is to
watch the news stations and search engines like Google flutrends.
This year is appearing a bit different. By the numbers so far, this is a solid “average influenza year” with many surveillance measures on the 10 year median. There is something different however that is
attracting attention.
The dominant strain is the same pandemic H1N1 that goes by
the name of A/pdmH1N1/California/07/2009 which wreaked havoc and caused
devastation in 2009. While the impact of
that year was that of a really bad influenza year, and many detractors claiming
that public health cried “wolf”, the reality is the wake of devastation was
substantive with about half million deaths worldwide. Lancet
2012 publication
What is being seen this year is sporadic severe illness in person
under 65 with co-morbidities including morbid obesity. Surveillance systems are not refined enough
to piece out demographics on severe illness which comparatively may be
different from prior years.
Alberta
seems to be earliest out of the Canadian starting block this year, perhaps we
can expect other provinces to begin reporting similar experiences as school
begins to return.
A ProMed
posting from people in BC provides a strong indication of relative
susceptibility amongst the under 65 population, and potentially among the naïve
under 5 age group.
Lets hope that the early indications fizzle quickly, but while
hoping for the best, be prepared for what others are already experiencing.
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